Kohaku Uta Gassen lineups have been released this year! If you missed it, here is the listing of all the artists who have been invited to this year’s telethon. The female idol acts invited are AKB48, SKE48, NMB48, E-Girls and Momoiro Clover Z (and Matsuda Seiko) . Here are some assorted thoughts about the whole lineup.

First off, why does Kohaku matter? Well, part of it is the sheer exposure. Kohaku Uta Gassen is a very highly watched and anticipated event. Being on the show means that you won’t only be seen by people who are fans of idol music, but by a large portion of the Japanese public. Even though Kohaku TV ratings aren’t quite as good as they once were, it’s still an incredibly highly watched program.

However, if you’ve made it on Kohaku it means you’ve already made it. This is basically a collection of the most popular artists in Japan for various genres (which is why you have all those enka singers). Being invited to Kohaku is a very big honor, and shows that you are a major presence in the Japanese music world. Getting to Kohaku was Momoiro Clover Z’s goal. NMB48’s song 12/31 is disappointment at not getting to Kohaku last year, which they achieved this year. Kohaku is basically “this group made it.”

NMB48 made it to Kohaku: Honestly, I’m not surprised at all. The group has made a big effort to get to Kohaku this year, and I would be surprised if SKE was invited and NMB was snubbed. NMB48’s sales and profile keeps going up (Bokura no Eureka’s sales were quite good). HKT48 still seems like it would be too early to invite, but I’m not shocked that NMB made it this year.

Morning Musume got snubbed!: This surprised me a bit more. People were expecting that Morning Musume would be invited which they weren’t. Honestly, the thing that consistently surprises me with Morning Musume is how long Morning Musume appeared on Kohaku before. They were on the show 10 times, which is really incredible considering how low in popularity they were for some of those appearances.

Morning Musume has had an incredible comeback. I don’t think this can be argued. The fact that Wagamama Ki no Mama Ai no Joke/Ai no Gundan sold over 144,000 copies in the first week speaks to how far Morning Musume’s come. However, I do think they have a ways to go. Their singles are selling and they’re starting to get back in the media spotlight, but they aren’t that visible on television. I think what Morning Musume has to do, if they want to be given another turn on Kohaku, is get more on TV. Try to appear more as variety guests, get on all the big music shows. While Love Machine was MM’s biggest hit, they had some media prominence with being pretty regular guests on Utaban, which gained them some level of prominence.

I do think Morning Musume, in terms of record sales, could have gotten to Kohaku, but they aren’t quite there with national presence. If they continue to promote the current members, and figure out a way to get people talking about the members’ personalities in a major way, I do think they could make it next year (providing that record sales don’t fall).

E-Girls made it onto Kohaku!: I think the biggest thing that I’ve heard people say about Morning Musume is “how did Morning Musume not make it, but E-Girls did?” First off, I think people really underestimate how popular E-Girls are. They’re a group that not a lot of people in the English-speaking idol fandom really talk about, but they do have very solid sales. One of their singles sold over 93,000 copies. This is less than Morning Musume, sure, but it’s considerable. I would also argue that E-Girls has a very solid digital presence, which doesn’t get reported in Oricon numbers. Their singles have been released with a digital version considerably before the physical copy. Casual E-Girls fans would almost certainly then just opt for getting this digital copy, especially if you get it faster.

There’s also the EXILE connection. EXILE is a very widely popular group in Japan, and E-Girls are kind of a sister group to EXILE. This also increases their recognition. E-Girls have become a considerably popular group this year, and I don’t think they’re out of place on Kohaku this year. they just have to perform Gomen Nasai no Kissing You because it’s one of my favorite songs of the year.

Ultimately, though, while I was initially surprised at both Morning Musume and E-Girls, neither really surprises me now, more or less.

What do you think? What can Morning Musume do to get to Kohaku? Did E-Girls surprise you? Let me know in the comments, and you’ll be a part of next week’s Your Thoughts post!